2019年6月19日星期三

2050年世界人口将达97亿 印度8年后超越中国


       联合国经济和社会事务部2019年6月17日发布一份报告说,2030年世界人口将从目前的77亿增至85亿,2050年达到97亿,2100年或将达到110亿。
  这份名为《世界人口展望2019:发现提要》的报告说,从现在起到2050年,一半的世界新增人口将集中在印度、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、刚果(金)、埃塞俄比亚、坦桑尼亚、印度尼西亚、埃及、美国等9个国家。预计2027年左右,印度人口将超过中国,成为世界第一人口大国。
  报告发现,世界人口增速在放缓,更多国家人口出现萎缩。从现在到2050年,人口出现萎缩的国家或地区数量将增至55个,其中26个国家或地区人口萎缩将超过10%。
  报告称,全球妇女平均生育率已经由1990年的3.2降至现在的2.5。到2050年,全球妇女平均生育率将继续下降到2.2。
  报告认为,世界人口老龄化加剧,65岁及以上人口将成为增长最快的年龄组。目前,全世界约9%的人口超过65岁,而到2050年,这一比例将达到16%,届时欧洲和北美地区65岁及以上人口将占总人口的四分之一,全世界80岁及以上人口将从目前的1.43亿增加到4.26亿。报告认为,人口老龄化导致工作年龄段人口比例下降,这将增加社会保障压力。
  报告说,到2050年,人类平均预期寿命将从目前的72.6岁增至77.1岁。预期寿命地区不均衡状况有所改善,但目前,最不发达国家人口的平均预期寿命仍然比世界平均水平短7.4岁。

2019年6月14日星期五

China Containment Is Fundamentally Wrong



America’s rise from a former British colony to become the world supreme power was propelled by the allied’s success in the WWII and its invention of the atomic bomb blasting Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  It won because of its armory and advanced weaponry.  Ever since, the US dominated the United Nations with its allies and ruled the world – saved as to the only obstacle the Soviet Union.  China, in those decades, was too poor to warrant any attention so the Soviet Union had been the target of attack.  By CIA agents secretly bribing core Party members for support and by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher successfully lured Mikhail Gorbatchov into believing that the Soviet Union needed political reform ahead of economic reform, thereby orchestrated the downfall of Soviet Union– disintegration.  China was clever enough not to walk the Soviet Union’s path and was instrumental in putting economic reform first, which brought tremendous success and grew to be the world’s second largest economy in some 30 years time just behind the US.


Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of China, the US no longer see China as useful source of cheap labour for American multinationals but a potential threat to future US hegemony. Since about 2005, the US developed a secret foreign policy – the China Containment Policy – which had two aspects: multi-frontal containment and internal transformation.



One of the subscribers to this China Containment Policy, University of Chicago International Relations Professor John Mearsheimer, said, in a seminar on Power Politics in the Indo-pacific Region: Implications for Liberal International Order held in Poland recently, that ‘…China is more likely to become a counter-weight to the us, who will not allow a new rival to emerge. Hence, it is trying every means to contain China’s rise’ and that ‘[t]he US has defeated its rivals time and time again in the past. This time it is China’s turn. China will also be defeated by the US.’



At the end of the day it boils down to one central question: “Is it necessary to contain China?”

Timid Chinese Culture

In traditional Chinese culture, the quest for harmony – or at times only a simplIn traditional Chinese culture, the quest for harmony – or at times only a simple appearance of harmony – is constant: it refers to a balanced relationship between Men and Society, between Mankind and Nature and among Men. A Chinese person will consequently feel embarrassed to refuse something bluntly, because he/she does not want to risk losing face with his vis-à-vis or breaking a “harmonious” ambience, albeit the latter is only a thin surface. The Western world uses a number of ways to resolve problems, but most of them allow for confrontation, differing interests or points of view. Westerners are not necessarily aware of what they have in common because there are degrees of nuance between a “cards on the table” confrontation, close to physical assault and a well-conducted negotiation.


The Chinese race, by the great majority, is the Han ethnic group. Han ancestors are the agricultural tribes emerging from central Asia and enjoyed the abundance of land and rich resources. Because of this self-sufficiency and availability of unlimited resource, the Han ethnics were very contended and never need to invade or conquer. On they contrary, nomads invaded the Hans from all other directions greedy for their richness. Historically, the only ‘war’, which the ancient Han ethnics fought against another foreign country, was during the Tang Dynasty. The Han ethnics acted in self-defense against an invasion from Arabic. Then, every since 1840, China was the victim of foreign invasion (the First opium War, the Second Opium War, Sino-Japanese War at World War II) rather than being a belligerent hegemon. Ironically, it is the West that used gunpowder as weapon against the Chinese who discovered that thousands of years ago but had never thought to used it to hurt people.

Formal Government Policy

According to the white paper entitled “China’s Peaceful Development” issued by the Information Office of the State Council of China in September 2011, China regards itself as a member of the international community and aims at building of a harmonious world of durable peace and common prosperity and work with other countries on international relations and foreign policies. For instance, China respects the right of the people of other countries to independently choose their own social system and path of development, and does not interfere in other countries’ internal affairs. In 2015, President Xi Jinping reiterated the message that “No matter how strong its economy grows, China will never seek hegemony, expansion or sphere of influence.” The Communist China keeps to its promise more often than breaking them.


Skeptics like Mearsheimer works on suspicion and not facts; he relied on speculation rather than analysis; he had no understanding of the Han ethnic culture but based his conclusion upon belligerent and confrontational Western way of thought.

Kacee Ting, a practising barrister in Hong Kong, is the vice Chairman of the Hong Kong Legal Exchange Foundation